2011年6月30日 星期四

Is Cree or Rubicon Ripe for a Rally?

Is Cree or Rubicon Ripe for a Rally?
The big equities rally and shift in macroeconomic sentiment hasn't catapulted LED stocks out of their doldrums.
In fact, shares of two of the main LED lighting sector plays, Cree(CREE) and Rubicon Technology(RBCN), remain tethered near their 52-week lows, even as green energy stocks, by and large, and technology stocks have moved higher this week.

Both stocks are dominant forces at opposite ends of the LED spectrum. Cree is the bellwether in the LED lighting market, and is vertically integrated, makings its own LED chips and components. Rubicon manufactures the sapphire substrate used as the raw material by many LED manufacturers, with one notable exception being Cree.

The analyst ranks are showing the usual divide on these two LED stocks. Within a week, KeyBanc launched coverage of Cree with a buy rating, only to be followed by a Morgan Stanley note that said things will get worse for Cree before they get better in the second half of the year because of pricing and margin concerns. Cree headed south after the Morgan Stanley note, even though the note included more bullish commentary on overall LED market demand.

Rubicon, meanwhile, continues to be a favorite of short investors who see nowhere for its high margins to go but down as competition increases in its niche.

Cree shares have lost more than 20% in June, while Rubicon's stock is off about 25% for the month. Cree was up 3% to $33.41 in recent trades but it scraped a 52-week low of $32.40 earlier in the week. Rubicon is back above $17 in Thursday's session, enjoying a modest bounce since hitting a 52-week low of $15.51 on June 17.

Are both of these LED stocks oversold and due for a rally? Is either Cree or Rubicon more likely to turn the corner and gain back investors before the other? Here are some keys to the outlook of both LED stocks as they struggle to break out of troughs in share price.
# The Cree Case

When it comes to supply and demand, visibility remains low in the LED sector. Investors have lost confidence in Cree over the past year in terms of its ability to provide visibility on the sector. Every time a bull steps up to say that the demand scenario is improving, the truth turns out to be different.

For example, last November, when Cree was also at a trough point, Morgan Keegan launched coverage of the LED stock with a conviction buy rating and said that the demand scenario was improving in Asia.

But things got much worse for Cree before they got better, with a rally in December 2010 petering out quickly, and Cree shares are down 50% year-to-date.

2011年6月27日 星期一

Central Virginia's Largest and Most Exciting Independence

Central Virginia's Largest and Most Exciting Independence Day Celebration is at Kings Dominion July 2, 3 and 4
Celebrate Independence Day with the Largest Fireworks Display in the Area

DOSWELL, Va., June 27, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Kings Dominion will celebrate America's Independence Day with three expanded installments of the nightly fireworks display, Night of Fire, on July 2, 3 and 4.  Celebrating over 35 years of family fun and excitement, the Mid-Atlantic's premier amusement park is proud to salute the 'Stars and Stripes' and everything they stand for!

To add to the weekend Kings Dominion is offering free admission to our Military personnel with the "Tribute to the Armed Forces" program.  All active duty, retired and former members of the armed forces will receive free admission to Kings Dominion on Sunday July 3 and Monday July 4.  Proper ID or discharge paperwork is required and family members can receive special discounted admission.

"Snoopy's Starlight Spectacular," a million dollar nighttime walk-through light and sound experience featuring Snoopy and the PEANUTS? gang continues to light up the nights at Kings Dominion beginning at dusk around 8:45pm.

Designed using a dazzling mixture of low energy and high efficiency LED lighting, this immersive light and sound spectacular is located around the park's Eiffel Tower, along the Center Walkway to The Grove area, and features more than 1.2 million LED lights. The colorful lights and spotlights adorn the Eiffel Tower and surrounding trees up to 80 feet in height.  The entire experience is accented by vibrant animated and stationary light displays, vivid theatrical lighting and other cutting edge special effects, all orchestrated to a custom designed audio soundtrack.

Kings Dominion and Water Works waterpark are open daily until through September 5.  Kings Dominion is a 400-acre amusement park and waterpark, that is home to over 60 total rides, slides, live shows and attractions.  The park features one of the largest roller coaster collections on the East-Coast, with 15 World-Class scream-machines, two children's areas, and Water Works, a 20-acre water playground.  Kings Dominion is located at exit 98 on I-95, north of Richmond.  For more information about Kings Dominion and complete operating hours, please visit www.KingsDominion.com.

Cedar Fair Entertainment Company (NYSE: "FUN") is a publicly traded partnership headquartered in Sandusky, Ohio.  The Company, which owns and operates 11 amusement parks, six outdoor water parks, one indoor water park and five hotels, is one of the largest regional amusement park operators in the world.  Its parks are located in Ohio, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Missouri, Michigan, and Toronto, Ontario.  Cedar Fair also operates the Gilroy Gardens Family Theme Park in Gilroy, California under a management contract.  Cedar Fair's flagship park, Cedar Point, has been consistently voted the "Best Amusement Park in the World" in a prestigious annual poll conducted by Amusement Today newspaper.

2011年6月16日 星期四

The cost of denial

EVENTS in Greece seem to be proceeding with the inevitability of tragedy, as politicians and the electorate balk at the deal in front of them; years of austerity for Greek citizens and years of subsidies from the rest of Europe all to keep the single currency project on track. As has been pointed out here before, it has been a long process of denial; first that Greece had a problem, then that a bailout would be needed, and then that the debt would need to be restructured.

What seems to be motivating the ECB in opposing a restructuring at the moment is the prospect of losses for the rest of the region's banks - the Lehman moment. But whose fault is that? Last year, the Committee of European Bank Supervisors unveiled the result of stress tests that showed only seven banks had failed. This test required the banks to take mark-to-market losses on government bonds held in their trading books, but not on bonds held to maturity since the possibility of default was excluded. It is impossible to believe that the ECB did not approve of this methodology.

Had the stress tests recognised what the markets were indicating even at that stage - that a Greek default was quite likely - then the weak banks could have been identified and recapitalised well before the current crisis. Now we will face the classic problem of uncertainty - investors will not know the extent to which individual banks are exposed and may react accordingly. Moody's placed three French banks on rating review yesterday, although it should be emphasised that the agency is only talking about downgrades of one or two notches (the banks are Aa1 and Aa2, so we are a long way from junk bond status).

Alas, for Greece, default is by no means an easy way out. It would mean the collapse of the banking system and who would bail it out? The only plausible support would come from the EU and the IMF; the two groups causing so much resentment at the moment. Going it alone would mean that Greece would be cut off from the credit markets; it would have to balance its budget immediately. So austerity (benefit cuts and job losses) would be required anyway.

Meanwhile, those living in Anglo-Saxon countries should beware of being too smug. There is a tendency, in the British press, to see pictures of riots in Athens and think "Oh, those excitable Continentals". But the evidence suggests that the vast majority of Greek demonstrators were peaceful and a small minority of anarchists caused the trouble. And that was exactly the explanation put forward last year when the Conservative party HQ in London was ransacked; a small minority seizes the moment and gives the media the pictures they "want". In Britain, austerity has barely begun and yet June 30 is set for both a civil service and teachers strike, not to mention the inevitable Tube walkout led by Bob Crow. Even in America, the Wisconsin state capitol was occupied this year in protests against an austerity (and union-bashing) agenda; indeed, the protests are still going on. The kind of austerity plan being imposed on Greece would probably provoke a violent reaction in most countries.

2011年6月14日 星期二

SOL’s Solar Lighting Moves from Remote Spots to City Parking Lots

When it became commercially available two decades ago, outdoor solar lighting was prohibitively expensive, used mainly for locations far from existing electrical grids. In the past, deep-pocketed buyers typically had very specific needs, such as illuminating ammunition depots at which electrical sparks could cause explosions or lighting remote military bases.

Recently, solar lighting material costs have decreased and efficiency has increased. Michael Sonnenfeldt, 55, president and CEO of SOL, a Palm City, Fla., manufacturer that specializes in building systems for such commercial applications as parking lots and pathways, says the 45-employee company is well- positioned to benefit. Lighting and consumer products behemoth Philips (PHG) estimates the global market for solar lighting at $1 billion within a decade.

Sonnenfeldt, who founded peer-to-peer investment group Tiger 21, invested $5 million in SOL since its 1990 inception. He took over daily operations four years ago and used the $20 million company’s profits to install systems in disaster zones. Sonnenfeldt spoke recently with Bloomberg.com contributor Karen E. Klein for this as-told-to Entrepreneur’s Journal:

For the first time ever, solar outdoor lighting has achieved grid parity and we can compete with the best lighting products in the world. Because of this, we expect our business to grow a hundredfold over the next 10 years. We have 50,000 systems in 60 countries around the world and we recently opened an office in Geneva.

Right now, we capture about 35 percent of the market share in North America, where about one half of 1 percent of outdoor lighting is solar lighting. It’s been estimated that within the next decade, 20 percent to 30 percent of outdoor lighting will be solar-powered.

I got involved in SOL about six months after it was founded in 1990. The founder, Alan Hurst, now heads our international sales. He needed an investor to provide some capital, so I put up $50,000 and bought 5 percent of the company. I was fascinated by the magic of digging a hole in the ground, sticking a pole in the hole, and watching the light go on.

The technology then was in its infancy, but only by comparison to where it is today. Over the past 20 years, we’ve become the largest supplier of solar-powered outdoor lighting to the U.S. military. We have always been a high-quality manufacturer but along the way we’ve found ways to improve.

When we started the company, the light source was generally a fluorescent light like a neon tube. The best lights you could get then would produce 20-to-30 lumens per watt, which is the general measure of light output. Back then, solar panels cost $5 per watt. Today, solar panels run $1.50 per watt.

Over the last four years, we’ve converted to digital LED lights. Those are so efficient that today, state-of-the-art LEDs produce 100-to-120 lumens per watt. So unlike other forms of energy, which keep getting more expensive, we can produce three-to-four times more light now at 30 percent of the cost.

Our new family of lights are the most sophisticated parking-lot lights in the world. And they are so inexpensive that when you’re building a new parking lot anywhere in the U.S. -- whether it’s for a local deli, or a bank, or an office building where the average light is 25 feet high or less -- it’s the same cost or cheaper to put in solar. What you save in not trenching (putting in underground cables and installing wiring) is more than the extra cost of the solar. And of course, the energy is free.

Why does somebody spend 20 years supporting a company? Over the years, I have underwritten losses, provided capital for growth, and invested in R&D at SOL. I did it because of a fundamental belief that the day would come where the cost of electricity and the environmental issues would make solar more and more applicable. I couldn’t have predicted 20 years ago that we’d sit here today, worried about global warming and terrorism.

In 1980, I converted an old, industrial warehouse directly across the Hudson River from Wall Street into the Harborside Financial Center in Jersey City, N.J. It was the largest commercial renovation in the country. The building was owned by my wife’s family and it had been the northeast distribution center of the Pennsylvania Railroad. In 1929, it was the largest building in the United States.

I was lucky enough to find a partner and buy it. I had the vision to convert it into a back office and computer center for Wall Street. I sold it in 1987 for $123 million to the U.S. West pension fund.

At that time I was 31. I had done my undergraduate and graduate work at MIT. I went to the Sloan Business School and afterward took a job for a year at Goldman Sachs, in the mergers-and-real- estate department. I left when this project came along.

After I sold Harborside, I created a foundation called Foundation Emmes to do peacekeeping work in places like Cambodia, Syria, Cypress, and Eritrea. Emmes is a Hebrew word that means “truth.” [The foundation is active today as the Humpty Dumpty Institute.] I had been on the board of Business Executives for National Security. In the 1990s, I led 10 inspection teams to 28 war zones around the world, negotiating ends to conflicts and inspecting the mechanisms of international peacekeeping forces.

In 1991, at the nadir of the savings and loan crisis, I began Emmes & Company to buy distressed real estate around the country. We were buying packages of 100 buildings at a time. By the time I sold that business to my partners in 1998, it had about $1 billion in real estate holdings. We owned 200 commercial buildings -- apartments, industrial buildings, and retail -- in six or seven states.

About four years ago, I was building a private-equity business and my partner and I had a shop filled with young associates. One of them was handling SOL and spending time on it. My partner said to me: It’s time to fix it, kill it, or sell it. I had not been involved personally with the company because I was growing other businesses and involved in nonprofit organizations. I was a serial entrepreneur but I had never used any of my personal skills in trying to build SOL. I was supporting what I used to call my fifth child.

At that time, I realized in my heart and gut that what I really wanted to do was fix it. I was diagnosed with cancer around that time and while I was undergoing treatment, I thought about what was important in the world. I’d been doing philanthropic stuff with my resources, but my business was never connected to my philanthropy.

I decided that SOL was an opportunity to do both: to have a driven workforce, but take some or all of our profits and make lights available where they could save lives. Since that time we have sent solar lights into disaster areas -- Hurricane Katrina, the earthquake in Peru, and we did a massive job in Haiti.

Chappell era was the most disappointing phase: Zaheer

New Delhi: If separated with the help of a centrifuge, Zaheer Khan’s career would show three distinct segments. And unlike most cricketers, the fast bowler’s life wouldn’t be divided chronologically, but according to his performances under each of the three foreign coaches that Team India have utilised thus far. Right on top of the life-sized test tube will float his glory era under South African Gary Kirsten – a time when the fast bowler led India to the 2011 World Cup with 21 wickets (joint highest in the quadrennial), and, of course, to the top of the Test rankings with countless victims.

Below the Kirsten demarcation lies his early days, a time of blossoming that coincided with New Zealand John Wright’s (India’s first foreign coach) regime. Having burst onto the scene with guile in 2000, an aggressive Zaheer flourished under the Kiwi through his first few years, going all the way to the final of the 2003 World Cup. But if Zaheer had then thought that his debacle of an opening over against the mighty Australians was the low point of his career, then he, like many others, were in the dark.

For right at the bottom of Zaheer’s otherwise prolific career are those days of terrible uncertainty, a time when he lost his way in dramatic fashion. A time when he, like several others, suffered at the hands of Australia’s Greg Chappell. In a freewheeling chat with Shekhar Gupta, the Editor-in-Chief of The Indian Express, Zaheer explains just how gloomy the Chappell era (2005-2007) was, on NDTV’s Walk the Talk.

“It was as if you’ve been framed. It was like ‘we don’t want you in the team. It’s not about performance, we don’t like your attitude, you’re stopping the growth of cricket in the Indian team’. I felt it personally because I was dropped straight after the Sri Lanka tour, even though I had not performed badly,” Zaheer says. “I got about nine wickets for Asia XI and I was recalled for the next series. In that phase it was always a struggle. When you’re fighting within the team, when you have a war to fight in your own camp, it is always difficult to win,” the 32-year old adds. And win, they didn’t. Crumbling spectacularly in the 2007 World Cup with a first round defeat, Chappell’s tenure with the Indian team ended with a crescendo. But for the Indians, it was almost like the eclipse had passed, and the shadow lifted. Following immediate success in the inaugural World T20 in South Africa, Kirsten ‘s beacon of light illuminated Team India with unprecedented happiness.

“Gary has been an amazing coach. He is very balanced and has given everyone their space. He understood the Indian culture and how we like to do things. He took that step of coming closer to us rather than dictating. He was our friend, not a coach. That was a big help, “ Zaheer says.

Scaling the peaks with Kirsten, Zaheer re-infused the Indian team with vigour, injecting the side with vein fulls of self-belief. Having transformed into one of the greatest practitioners of the art of reverse swing, Zaheer is now seen as a bowler who empowers youngsters around him with constant advice, with nuggets of wisdom. such as: ‘The second innings of a Test match is where the real fun lies, and the time to win matches. Don’t be tired for it.’

“I don’t hold any secrets from them,” he says, smiling. But does he share trade secrets with fast bowlers from other teams as well, during the IPL? “I’ve been asked many times during conversations. I just tell them it is a team effort,” Zaheer adds, with tongue firmly in cheek.

With Kirsten’s mentor Duncan Fletcher having taken over the reins, Zaheer believes that India is destined for further glory, and one cannot rest on their laurels. When asked what will motivate him in the new era, Zaheer said: “Cricket gives me a high. The ultimate high.” As for the present, the centrifugal forces have no effect. And the result is a crystal clear concoction of triumph.