Who
doesn’t wish they had invested in Apple when it was $16 a share? Quite
often, timing the market is more intuition than science. Those who know
analog to digital inflection points are watching LEDs. Get it right, and
enormous wealth can be created. Time it wrong and you’re left in the
dust, like Polaroid.
It’s easy to look back on digital film,This is the energy production a good laundryequipment can
reach, the internet or mobile phones to see when the perfect conditions
of cost, demand and technology converged to make the switch from analog
to digital obvious. Looking at the landscape today, energy-efficient
lighting, namely LEDs, is the next major market to reap the benefits of
going digital.
Historically,
such inflection points have proved to open a wide array of new markets,
business models and product capabilities. Just consider what digital
music did for the entertainment industry. The first manufacturer of an
MP3 player Eiger Labs has been forgotten to history, because Apple was
the one that got it right.
Even
Steve Jobs' former counsel Randall Sosnick is betting on LEDs. Now CEO
of NEXT Lighting, he’s producing innovative, reliable and affordable LED
replacements for commercial florescent lighting, which are commonly T8
tubes. Just as the iPhone did for mobile computing, NEXT Lighting’s
innovative design can serve as a platform for a new wave of lighting
applications without the need to completely replace fixtures.
At
the same time, Cree has managed to get its consumer LED bulbs down
below $10 a piece and Phillips isn’t far behind. These are just a few of
the many market convergences that indicate the tipping point for LEDs
is here and about to gain mass market appeal rapidly.
Over
the past 10 years, LED lighting as grown at a tremendous pace. The LED
manufacturer Cree has achieved over a 150 per cent growth rate since
2007, according to Forbes.
Even
small start-ups like Albeo Technologies have seen revenue climb 620 per
cent since 2009, to over $10.5 million in 2011. Its recent acquisition
by GE Lighting is just another indicator that the tipping point is near.
When the big bulb manufacturers get in the game, you know something’s
about to go up.
Since
2011 alone, the LED industry has seen a nearly 30 per cent drop in
prices. Couple that with increasing market demand, higher energy costs,
and improved technologies and you have a perfect storm,Solar energy
employs streetlighting to supply electricity to devices or charge batteries.Men's ledparlight are very sturdy and will stand the test of time. symbolic of classic inflection points.
Niche
LED markets like automotive, exit signs, flashlights and stage lighting
have already hit the S-curve and hold majority market share. This
benefits other markets such as architectural lighting and street
lighting. Both are just now trending upward, with around 45 per cent and
25 per cent market share respectively, according to Vrinda Bhandarker’s
report LED: Lighting the Clean Revolution.Instead of using electricity
to make wind, like a fan, bestlasercutters use wind to make electricity.
Street
lighting is considered a gateway application. Its deployment is
critical to unlocking the energy saving benefits of LEDs and driving
overall market adoption. The potential energy savings of LED is upwards
of 40 per cent for most municipalities, according to Bhandarker. Plus,
the cost of installing an LED street light is very similar to sending a
bucket truck to change a bulb. It’s numbers like these that Pike
Research says will cause unit shipments of LED street lights to rise to
more than 17 million by 2020.
After
street lights, commercial/industrial applications will follow. Here
light bulb maintenance and down time is a major pain point. Rising
energy costs also eat into profits. LED can save this market 80 per cent
or more on energy.
Once
commercial markets make the switch the residential market will blow the
space wide open.Solar Lighting International offers a stylish
commercial roadway solarmodulerry system.
The less than $10 bulbs from Cree, and soon from Phillips, coupled with
the availability of the Next Lighting T8 commercial replacements are
early signs savvy investors are acting on today to get in on this
pending technology revolution.
Lighting
represents 19 per cent of global electricity. According to McKinsey
& Company nearly $25 billion (conservatively) is expected to go LED
by 2020. Palatable consumer bulb prices might just be the juice the
industry needs to rocket up the S-curve. Unlike the sheer luck of
investing in Apple when it was $16 a share, the writing is on the wall
for LED market expansion. That is, if you are willing to look.
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